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ラベル 離散型確率変数 の投稿を表示しています。 すべての投稿を表示
ラベル 離散型確率変数 の投稿を表示しています。 すべての投稿を表示

離散型確率変数(discrete random variable) の一様分布(uniform distribution)の分散(variance)

$$\begin{array}{rcl} \displaystyle M_X^{(m)}(0)&\equiv&\frac{ \mathrm{d}^m }{ \mathrm{d}^m t } M_X(t)|_{t=0}\\ &=&\displaystyle E[X^m\mathrm{e}^{tX}]|_{t=0}\\ &=&\displaystyle E[X^m]\\ \end{array}$$

積率母凾数の二階微分

$$\begin{array}{rcl} \displaystyle M_X^{(2)} &=&\displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{d^2}}{\mathrm{d}t^2}\left\{ \displaystyle \href{https://shikitenkai.blogspot.com/2019/07/uniform-distribution.html}{\frac{1}{n}\frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}(\mathrm{e}^{nt}-1)}{(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)}} \displaystyle \right\}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{d}}{\mathrm{d}t}\left\{ \displaystyle \href{https://shikitenkai.blogspot.com/2019/07/discrete-random-variable-uniform.html}{\frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}}{n}\frac{n\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}-(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt}+1}{(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^2}} \displaystyle \right\}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{1}{n} \frac{\mathrm{d}}{\mathrm{d}t}\left\{ \displaystyle \mathrm{e}^{t} \frac{n\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}-(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt}+1}{(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^2} \displaystyle \right\}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{1}{n} \frac{\mathrm{d}}{\mathrm{d}t}\left\{ \displaystyle \mathrm{e}^{t} (n\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}-(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt}+1)(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{-2} \displaystyle \right\}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{1}{n} \left\{ (\mathrm{e}^{t})'(n\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}-(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt}+1)(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{-2} +\mathrm{e}^{t}(n\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}-(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt}+1)'(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{-2} +\mathrm{e}^{t}(n\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}-(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt}+1)\left((\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{-2}\right)' \right\}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{1}{n} \left\{ \mathrm{e}^{t}(n\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}-(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt}+1)(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{-2} +\mathrm{e}^{t}((n\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t})'-((n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt})'+(1)')(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{-2} +\mathrm{e}^{t}(n\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}-(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt}+1)\left(-2\mathrm{e}^{t}(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{-3}\right) \right\}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{1}{n} \left\{ \mathrm{e}^{t}(n\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}-(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt}+1)(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{-2} +\mathrm{e}^{t}((n(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t})-(n(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt})+0)(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{-2} +\mathrm{e}^{t}(n\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}-(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt}+1)\left(-2\mathrm{e}^{t}(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{-3}\right) \right\}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}}{n} \left\{ (n\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}-(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt}+1)(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{-2} +((n(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t})-(n(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt}))(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{-2} +(n\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}-(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt}+1)\left(-2\mathrm{e}^{t}(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{-3}\right) \right\}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}}{n} \left\{\frac{ (n\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}-(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt}+1)(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1) +((n(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t})-(n(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt}))(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1) -2\mathrm{e}^{t}(n\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}-(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt}+1) }{(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{3}} \right\}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}}{n} \left\{\frac{ (n\mathrm{e}^{(n+2)t}-(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}+\mathrm{e}^{t})-(n\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}-(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt}+1) +((n(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{(n+2)t})-(n(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}))-((n(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t})-(n(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt})) -(2n\mathrm{e}^{(n+2)t}-2(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}+2\mathrm{e}^{t}) }{(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{3}} \right\}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}}{n} \left\{\frac{ n\mathrm{e}^{(n+2)t}-(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}+\mathrm{e}^{t}-n\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}+(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt}-1 +n(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{(n+2)t}-n(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}-n(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}+n(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt} -2n\mathrm{e}^{(n+2)t}+2(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}-2\mathrm{e}^{t} }{(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{3}} \right\}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}}{n} \left\{\frac{ (n+n(n+1)-2n)\mathrm{e}^{(n+2)t} +(-(n+1)-n-n(n+1)-n(n+1)+2(n+1))\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t} +((n+1)+n(n+1))\mathrm{e}^{nt} +(1-2)\mathrm{e}^{t} -1}{(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{3}} \right\}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}}{n} \left\{\frac{ n^2\mathrm{e}^{(n+2)t} -(2n^2+2n-1)\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t} +(n^2+2n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt} -\mathrm{e}^{t} -1}{(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{3}} \right\}\\ \end{array}$$

原点周りの二次モーメント

$$\begin{array}{rcl} \displaystyle E[X^2]&=&\displaystyle M_X^{(2)}(0)\\ &=&\displaystyle \lim_{t \to 0}\left[ \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}}{n} \left\{\frac{ n^2\mathrm{e}^{(n+2)t} -(2n^2+2n-1)\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t} +(n^2+2n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt} -\mathrm{e}^{t} -1}{(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{3}} \right\} \right]\,\dotso\,0を代入すると分母が0になってしまうので極限で考える.\\ &=&\displaystyle \lim_{t \to 0}\left[ \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}}{n} \left\{\frac{ n^2\mathrm{e}^{(n+2)t} -(2n^2+2n-1)\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t} +(n^2+2n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt} -\mathrm{e}^{t} -1}{ \mathrm{e}^{3t} -3\mathrm{e}^{2t} +3\mathrm{e}^{t} -1} \right\} \right]\\ &=&\displaystyle \lim_{t \to 0}\left[ \frac{\left(\frac{t^0}{0!}+\frac{t^1}{1!}+\frac{t^2}{2!}+\frac{t^3}{3!}+\frac{t^4}{4!}\right)}{n} \left\{\frac{ n^2\left( \frac{((n+2)t)^0}{0!}+\frac{((n+2)t)^1}{1!}+\frac{((n+2)t)^2}{2!}+\frac{((n+2)t)^3}{3!}+\frac{((n+2)t)^4}{4!} \right) -(2n^2+2n-1)\left( \frac{((n+1)t)^0}{0!}+\frac{((n+1)t)^1}{1!}+\frac{((n+1)t)^2}{2!}+\frac{((n+1)t)^3}{3!}+\frac{((n+1)t)^4}{4!} \right) +(n^2+2n+1)\left( \frac{(nt)^0}{0!}+\frac{(nt)^1}{1!}+\frac{(nt)^2}{2!}+\frac{(nt)^3}{3!}+\frac{(nt)^4}{4!} \right) -\left( \frac{t^0}{0!}+\frac{t^1}{1!}+\frac{t^2}{2!}+\frac{t^3}{3!}+\frac{t^4}{4!} \right) -1}{ \left( \frac{(3t)^0}{0!}+\frac{(3t)^1}{1!}+\frac{(3t)^2}{2!}+\frac{(3t)^3}{3!}+\frac{(3t)^4}{4!} \right) -3\left( \frac{(2t)^0}{0!}+\frac{(2t)^1}{1!}+\frac{(2t)^2}{2!}+\frac{(2t)^3}{3!}+\frac{(2t)^4}{4!} \right) +3\left( \frac{t^0}{0!}+\frac{t^1}{1!}+\frac{t^2}{2!}+\frac{t^3}{3!}+\frac{t^4}{4!} \right) -1} \right\} \right]\\ && \displaystyle \,\dotso\,\href{https://shikitenkai.blogspot.com/2019/07/blog-post.html}{\mathrm{e}^x=\sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\frac{x^k}{k!}=\frac{x^0}{0!}+\frac{x^1}{1!}+\frac{x^2}{2!}+\frac{x^3}{3!}+\frac{x^4}{4!}+\dotsb} (マクローリン展開), ひとまず4乗の項までで計算を進める.\\ &=&\displaystyle \lim_{t \to 0}\left[ \frac{\left(1+t+\frac{t^2}{2}+\frac{t^3}{6}+\frac{t^4}{24}\right)}{n} \left\{\frac{ n^2\left( 1 +(n+2)t +\frac{(n+2)^2}{2}t^2 +\frac{(n+2)^3}{6}t^3 +\frac{(n+2)^4}{24}t^4 \right) -(2n^2+2n-1)\left( 1 +(n+1)t +\frac{(n+1)^2}{2}t^2 +\frac{(n+1)^3}{6}t^3 +\frac{(n+1)^4}{24}t^4 \right) +(n^2+2n+1)\left( 1 +nt +\frac{n^2}{2}t^2 +\frac{n^3}{6}t^3 +\frac{n^4}{24}t^4 \right) -\left( 1 +t +\frac{1}{2}t^2 +\frac{1}{6}t^3 +\frac{1}{24}t^4 \right) -1}{ 1 +3t +\frac{9}{2}t^2 +\frac{27}{6}t^3 +\frac{81}{24}t^4 -3 -6t -\frac{12}{2}t^2 -\frac{24}{6}t^3 -\frac{48}{24}t^4 +3 +3t +\frac{3}{2}t^2 +\frac{3}{6}t^3 +\frac{3}{24}t^4 -1} \right\}\right]\\ &=&\displaystyle \lim_{t \to 0}\left[ \frac{\left(1+t+\frac{t^2}{2}+\frac{t^3}{6}+\frac{t^4}{24}\right)}{n} \left\{\frac{ n^2 \left(1+(n+2)t +\frac{(n+2)^2}{2}t^2 +\frac{(n+2)^3}{6}t^3 +\frac{(n+2)^4}{24}t^4 \right) -(2n^2+2n-1)\left(1+(n+1)t +\frac{(n+1)^2}{2}t^2 +\frac{(n+1)^3}{6}t^3 +\frac{(n+1)^4}{24}t^4 \right) +(n^2+2n+1) \left(1+nt +\frac{n^2}{2}t^2 +\frac{n^3}{6}t^3 +\frac{n^4}{24}t^4 \right) - \left(1+t +\frac{1}{2}t^2 +\frac{1}{6}t^3 +\frac{1}{24}t^4 \right) -1}{t^3+\frac{3}{2}t^4} \right\}\right]\\ &=&\displaystyle \lim_{t \to 0}\left[ \frac{\left(1+t+\frac{t^2}{2}+\frac{t^3}{6}+\frac{t^4}{24}\right)}{nt^3(1+\frac{3}{2}t)} \left\{ n^2 \left(1+(n+2)t +\frac{(n+2)^2}{2}t^2 +\frac{(n+2)^3}{6}t^3 +\frac{(n+2)^4}{24}t^4 \right) -(2n^2+2n-1)\left(1+(n+1)t +\frac{(n+1)^2}{2}t^2 +\frac{(n+1)^3}{6}t^3 +\frac{(n+1)^4}{24}t^4 \right) +(n^2+2n+1) \left(1+nt +\frac{n^2}{2}t^2 +\frac{n^3}{6}t^3 +\frac{n^4}{24}t^4 \right) - \left(1+t +\frac{1}{2}t^2 +\frac{1}{6}t^3 +\frac{1}{24}t^4 \right) -1 \right\}\right]\\ &=&\displaystyle \lim_{t \to 0}\left[ \frac{\left(1+t+\frac{t^2}{2}+\frac{t^3}{6}+\frac{t^4}{24}\right)}{nt^3(1+\frac{3}{2}t)} \left\{ n^2 +n^2(n+2)t +\frac{n^2(n+2)^2}{2}t^2 +\frac{n^2(n+2)^3}{6}t^3 +\frac{n^2(n+2)^4}{24}t^4 -(2n^2+2n-1) -(2n^2+2n-1)(n+1)t -\frac{(2n^2+2n-1)(n+1)^2}{2}t^2 -\frac{(2n^2+2n-1)(n+1)^3}{6}t^3 +\frac{(2n^2+2n-1)(n+1)^4}{24}t^4 +(n^2+2n+1) +(n^2+2n+1)nt +\frac{(n^2+2n+1)n^2}{2}t^2 +\frac{(n^2+2n+1)n^3}{6}t^3 +\frac{(n^2+2n+1)n^4}{24}t^4 -1 -t -\frac{1}{2}t^2 -\frac{1}{6}t^3 +\frac{1}{24}t^4 -1 \right\}\right]\\ &=&\displaystyle \lim_{t \to 0}\left[ \frac{\left(1+t+\frac{t^2}{2}+\frac{t^3}{6}+\frac{t^4}{24}\right)}{nt^3(1+\frac{3}{2}t)} \left\{ (n^2 -(2n^2+2n-1) +(n^2+2n+1) -1 -1) +(n^2(n+2) -(2n^2+2n-1)(n+1) +(n^2+2n+1)n -1 )t +(\frac{n^2(n+2)^2}{2} -\frac{(2n^2+2n-1)(n+1)^2}{2} +\frac{(n^2+2n+1)n^2}{2} -\frac{1}{2} )t^2 +(\frac{n^2(n+2)^3}{6} -\frac{(2n^2+2n-1)(n+1)^3}{6} +\frac{(n^2+2n+1)n^3}{6} -\frac{1}{6} )t^3 +(\frac{n^2(n+2)^4}{24} -\frac{(2n^2+2n-1)(n+1)^4}{24} +\frac{(n^2+2n+1)n^4}{24} -\frac{1}{24} )t^4 \right\}\right]\\ &=&\displaystyle \lim_{t \to 0}\left[ \frac{\left(1+t+\frac{t^2}{2}+\frac{t^3}{6}+\frac{t^4}{24}\right)}{nt^3(1+\frac{3}{2}t)} \left\{ (0) +(0)t +(0)t^2 +\frac{n(n+1)(2n+1)}{6}t^3 +\frac{n(n+1)(3n^2+5n+1)}{12}t^4 \right\}\right]\\ &=&\displaystyle \lim_{t \to 0}\left[ \frac{\left(1+t+\frac{t^2}{2}+\frac{t^3}{6}+\frac{t^4}{24}\right)}{nt^3(1+\frac{3}{2}t)} nt^3 \left\{ \frac{(n+1)(2n+1)}{6} +\frac{(n+1)(3n^2+5n+1)}{12}t \right\}\right]\\ &&\,\dotso\,分母はt^3の項からが残っている.t^4以上の項はtが残るのでマクローリン展開はt^4で十分となる\\ &=&\displaystyle \lim_{t \to 0}\left[ \frac{\left(1+t+\frac{t^2}{2}+\frac{t^3}{6}+\frac{t^4}{24}\right)}{1+\frac{3}{2}t} \left\{ \frac{(n+1)(2n+1)}{6} +\frac{(n+1)(3n^2+5n+1)}{12}t \right\}\right]\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{(n+1)(2n+1)}{6}\\ &&\,\dotso\,tが分子にある(掛けられている)項は全て0.\\ \end{array}$$

分散

$$\begin{array}{rcl} \displaystyle V[X]&=&\displaystyle E[X^2]-E[X]^2\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{(n+1)(2n+1)}{6}-\left(\href{https://shikitenkai.blogspot.com/2019/07/discrete-random-variable-uniform.html}{\frac{n+1}{2}}\right)^2\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{(n+1)(2n+1)}{6}-\frac{(n+1)^2}{4}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{2(n+1)(2n+1)-3(n+1)^2}{12}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{(n+1)(2(2n+1)-3(n+1))}{12}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{(n+1)(4n+2-3n-3)}{12}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{(n+1)(n-1)}{12}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{n^2-1}{12}\\ \end{array}$$

離散型確率変数(discrete random variable) の一様分布(uniform distribution)の期待値(expected value)

$$\begin{array}{rcl} \displaystyle M_X^{(m)}(0)&\equiv&\frac{ \mathrm{d}^m }{ \mathrm{d}^m t } M_X(t)|_{t=0}\\ &=&\displaystyle E[X^m\mathrm{e}^{tX}]|_{t=0}\\ &=&\displaystyle E[X^m]\\ \end{array}$$

積率母凾数の一階微分

$$\begin{array}{rcl} \displaystyle M_X^{(1)} &=& \displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{d}}{\mathrm{d}t}\left\{ \displaystyle \href{https://shikitenkai.blogspot.com/2019/07/uniform-distribution.html}{\frac{1}{n}\frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}(\mathrm{e}^{nt}-1)}{(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)}} \displaystyle \right\}\\ &=& \displaystyle \frac{1}{n} \displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{d}}{\mathrm{d}t}\left\{ \displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}(\mathrm{e}^{nt}-1)}{(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)} \displaystyle \right\}\\ &=& \displaystyle \frac{1}{n} \displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{d}}{\mathrm{d}t}\left\{ \displaystyle \mathrm{e}^{t}(\mathrm{e}^{nt}-1)(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{-1} \displaystyle \right\}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{1}{n} \left\{ (\mathrm{e}^{t})'(\mathrm{e}^{nt}-1)(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{-1} + \mathrm{e}^{t}(\mathrm{e}^{nt}-1)'(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{-1} + \mathrm{e}^{t}(\mathrm{e}^{nt}-1)((\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{-1})' \right\}\\ &&\,\dotso\,(uvw)'=u'(vw)+u(vw)'=u'(vw)+u(v'w+vw')=u'vw+uv'w+uvw'\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{1}{n} \left\{ \mathrm{e}^{t}(\mathrm{e}^{nt}-1)(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{-1} + \mathrm{e}^{t}(n\mathrm{e}^{nt})(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{-1} + \mathrm{e}^{t}(\mathrm{e}^{nt}-1)(-\mathrm{e}^{t}(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^{-2}) \right\}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{1}{n} \left\{ \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}(\mathrm{e}^{nt}-1)}{(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)} + \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}(n\mathrm{e}^{nt})}{(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)} + \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}\mathrm{e}^{t}(\mathrm{e}^{nt}-1)}{-(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^2} \right\}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}}{n} \left\{ \frac{(\mathrm{e}^{nt}-1)}{(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)} + \frac{(n\mathrm{e}^{nt})}{(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)} + \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}(\mathrm{e}^{nt}-1)}{-(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^2} \right\}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}}{n} \frac{(\mathrm{e}^{nt}-1)(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1) + (n\mathrm{e}^{nt})(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1) - \mathrm{e}^{t}(\mathrm{e}^{nt}-1)}{(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^2}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}}{n} \frac{(\mathrm{e}^{nt}\mathrm{e}^{t}-\mathrm{e}^{nt}-\mathrm{e}^{t}+1) + (n\mathrm{e}^{nt}\mathrm{e}^{t}-n\mathrm{e}^{nt}) - (\mathrm{e}^{nt}\mathrm{e}^{t}-\mathrm{e}^{t})}{(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^2}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}}{n} \frac{\mathrm{e}^{nt}\mathrm{e}^{t}-\mathrm{e}^{nt}-\mathrm{e}^{t}+1 + n\mathrm{e}^{nt}\mathrm{e}^{t}-n\mathrm{e}^{nt} - \mathrm{e}^{nt}\mathrm{e}^{t}+\mathrm{e}^{t}}{(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^2}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}}{n} \frac{\mathrm{e}^{nt}(\mathrm{e}^{t} - 1 +n\mathrm{e}^{t} -n-\mathrm{e}^{t}) +1}{(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^2}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}}{n} \frac{\mathrm{e}^{nt}(n\mathrm{e}^{t}-(n+1))+1}{(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^2}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}}{n} \frac{n\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}-(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt}+1}{(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^2}\\ \end{array}$$

原点周りの一次モーメント=期待値

$$\begin{array}{rcl} \displaystyle E[X]&=&\displaystyle M_X^{(1)}(0)\\ &=&\displaystyle \lim_{t \to 0}\left\{ \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}}{n} \displaystyle \frac{n\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}-(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt}+1}{(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)^2} \right\}\,\dotso\,0を代入すると分母が0になってしまうので極限で考える.\\ &=&\displaystyle \lim_{t \to 0}\left\{ \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}}{n} \displaystyle \frac{n\mathrm{e}^{(n+1)t}-(n+1)\mathrm{e}^{nt}+1}{\mathrm{e}^{2t}-2\mathrm{e}^{t}+1} \right\}\\ &=&\displaystyle \lim_{t \to 0} \left\{\frac{\left(\frac{t^0}{0!}+\frac{t^1}{1!}+\frac{t^2}{2!}+\frac{t^3}{3!}\right)}{n} \frac{n\left(\frac{((n+1)t)^0}{0!}+\frac{((n+1)t)^1}{1!}+\frac{((n+1)t)^2}{2!}+\frac{((n+1)t)^3}{3!}\right) -(n+1)\left(\frac{(nt)^0}{0!}+\frac{(nt)^1}{1!}+\frac{(nt)^2}{2!}+\frac{(nt)^3}{3!}\right) +1}{ \left(\frac{(2t)^0}{0!}+\frac{(2t)^1}{1!}+\frac{(2t)^2}{2!}+\frac{(2t)^3}{3!}\right) -2 \left(\frac{t^0}{0!}+\frac{t^1}{1!}+\frac{t^2}{2!}+\frac{t^3}{3!}\right) +1} \right\}\\ && \displaystyle \,\dotso\,\href{https://shikitenkai.blogspot.com/2019/07/blog-post.html}{\mathrm{e}^x=\sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\frac{x^k}{k!}=\frac{x^0}{0!}+\frac{x^1}{1!}+\frac{x^2}{2!}+\frac{x^3}{3!}+\dotsb} (マクローリン展開), ひとまずt^3の項までで計算を進める.\\ &=&\displaystyle \lim_{t \to 0}\left\{ \frac{\left(1+t+\frac{1}{2}t^2+\frac{1}{6}t^3\right)}{n} \frac{n\left(1+(n+1)t+\frac{(n+1)^2}{2}t^2+\frac{(n+1)^3}{6}t^3\right) -(n+1)\left(1+nt+\frac{n^2}{2}t^2+\frac{n^3}{6}t^3\right) +1}{ \left(1+(2t)+\frac{(2t)^2}{2}+\frac{(2t)^3}{6}\right) -2 \left(1+(t)+\frac{t^2}{2}+\frac{t^3}{6}\right) +1} \right\}\\ &=&\displaystyle \lim_{t \to 0}\left\{ \frac{\left(1+t+\frac{1}{2}t^2+\frac{1}{6}t^3\right)}{n} \frac{n\left(1+(n+1)t+\frac{(n+1)^2}{2}t^2+\frac{(n+1)^3}{6}t^3\right) -(n+1)\left(1+nt+\frac{n^2}{2}t^2+\frac{n^3}{6}t^3\right) +1}{ 1+2t+2t^2+\frac{4}{3}t^3 -2-2t-t^2-\frac{1}{3}t^3 +1} \right\}\\ &=&\displaystyle \lim_{t \to 0}\left\{ \frac{\left(1+t+\frac{1}{2}t^2+\frac{1}{6}t^3\right)}{n} \frac{n\left(1+(n+1)t+\frac{(n+1)^2}{2}t^2+\frac{(n+1)^3}{6}t^3\right) -(n+1)\left(1+nt+\frac{n^2}{2}t^2+\frac{n^3}{6}t^3\right) +1}{t^2(1+t)} \right\}\\ &=&\displaystyle \lim_{t \to 0}\left[ \frac{\left(1+t+\frac{1}{2}t^2+\frac{1}{6}t^3\right)}{nt^2(1+t)} \left\{n+n(n+1)t+\frac{n(n+1)^2}{2}t^2+\frac{n(n+1)^3}{6}t^3 -(n+1)-(n+1)nt-\frac{(n+1)n^2}{2}t^2-\frac{(n+1)n^3}{6}t^3 +1\right\} \right]\\ &=&\displaystyle \lim_{t \to 0}\left[ \frac{\left(1+t+\frac{1}{2}t^2+\frac{1}{6}t^3\right)}{nt^2(1+t)} \left\{(n-(n+1)+1) +(n(n+1)-(n+1)n)t +(\frac{n(n+1)^2}{2}-\frac{(n+1)n^2}{2})t^2 +(\frac{n(n+1)^3}{6}-\frac{(n+1)n^3}{6})t^3 \right\} \right]\\ &=&\displaystyle \lim_{t \to 0}\left[ \frac{\left(1+t+\frac{1}{2}t^2+\frac{1}{6}t^3\right)}{nt^2(1+t)} \left\{(0) +(0)t +(\frac{n+1}{2})nt^2 +(\frac{(n+1)(2n+1)}{6})nt^3 \right\} \right]\\ &=&\displaystyle \lim_{t \to 0}\left\{ \frac{\left(1+t+\frac{1}{2}t^2+\frac{1}{6}t^3\right)}{nt^2(1+t)} nt^2\left(\frac{n+1}{2}+\frac{(n+1)(2n+1)}{6}t\right) \right\}\\ &&\,\dotso\,分母はt^2の項からが残っている.t^3以上の項はtが残るのでマクローリン展開はt^3で十分となる.\\ &=&\displaystyle \lim_{t \to 0}\left\{ \left(1+t+\frac{1}{2}t^2+\frac{1}{6}t^3\right) \left(\frac{n+1}{2}+\frac{(n+1)(2n+1)}{6}t\right) \right\}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{n+1}{2}\\ &&\,\dotso\,tが分子にある(掛けられている)項は全て0.\\ \end{array}$$

離散型確率変数(discrete random variable) の一様分布(uniform distribution)の積率母凾数(moment-generating function)

$$f_X(x) = \begin{cases} \displaystyle \frac{1}{n} & \quad x \in \left\{1,2, \dots ,n\right\}\\ \displaystyle 0 & \quad x \notin \left\{1,2, \dots ,n\right\} \end{cases} $$ $$\begin{array}{rcl} \displaystyle M_X(t)&\equiv&\displaystyle E[\mathrm{e}^{tX}]\\ &=&\displaystyle \sum_{x=1}^{n}\mathrm{e}^{tx}\left(\frac{1}{n}\right)\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{1}{n} \sum_{x=1}^{n}\mathrm{e}^{tx}\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{1}{n} \left(\mathrm{e}^t+\mathrm{e}^{2t}+\dotsb+\mathrm{e}^{nt}\right)\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{1}{n} \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}(\mathrm{e}^{nt}-1)}{\mathrm{e}^{t}-1} \,\dotso\,a+ar+ar^2+\dotsb+ar^{n-1}=\frac{a(1-r^n)}{1-r}=\frac{a(r^n-1)}{r-1}\;(r \neq 1)\\ &=&\displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{e}^{t}(\mathrm{e}^{nt}-1)}{n(\mathrm{e}^{t}-1)}\\ \end{array}$$

離散型確率変数(discrete random variable) / 分散(variance)

$$\begin{array}{rcl} 母集団(population)の確率変数&:&X,Y\\ 確率質量凾数(probability\,mass\,function,\,PMF)&:&f_X(x)=P(X=x_i)\\ &&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} f_X(x_i)=1\\ 累積分布凾数(cumulative\,distribution\,function,\,CDF)&:&\displaystyle F_X(x)=\sum_{i:x_i \leq x} f_X(x_i)\\ 同時確率質量凾数(joint\,probability\,mass\,function)&:&f_X(x, y)=P(X=x_i,\,Y=y_j)\\ &&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}\sum_{j=1}^{\infty} f_{XY}(x_i, y_j)=1\\ 周辺確率質量凾数(marginal\, probability\, mass\, function)&:&\displaystyle f_X(x)=\sum_{j=1}^{\infty} f_{XY}(x, y_i)\\ \end{array}$$ $$\begin{array}{rcl} V[X]&\equiv&E[(X-E[X])^2]\\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} (x_i-E[X])^2 f_X(x_i) \\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} (x_i^2-2E[X]x_i+E[X]^2) f_X(x_i) \\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} (x_i^2f_X(x_i)-2E[X]x_if_X(x_i)+E[X]^2f_X(x_i)) \\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} (x_i^2) f_X(x_i) -2E[X]\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} (x_i) f_X(x_i) +E[X]^2\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} f_X(x_i)\\ &=&E[X^2] -2E[X]E[X] +E[X]^2 1\\ &=&E[X^2] -2E[X]^2 +E[X]^2\\ &=&E[X^2]-E[X]^2\\ V[cX] &=&E[(cX-E[cX])^2]\,\dotso\,cは定数\\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} (c x_i - E[c X])^2 f_X(x_i) \\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} (c x_i - c E[X])^2 f_X(x_i) \\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} (c (x_i - E[X]))^2 f_X(x_i) \\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} c^2 (x_i-E[X])^2 f_X(x_i) \\ &=&c^2\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} (x_i-E[X])^2 f_X(x_i) \\ &=&c^2 V[X] \\ V[X \pm t]&=&E[((X \pm t)-E[X \pm t])^2]\,\dotso\,tは定数\\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} ((x_i \pm t)-E[X \pm t])^2 f_X(x_i) \\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} ((x_i \pm t)-(E[X] \pm t))^2 f_X(x_i) \\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} (x_i \pm t - E[X] \mp t))^2 f_X(x_i) \\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} (x_i-E[X])^2 f_X(x_i) \\ &=&V[X] \\ V[X \pm Y]&=&E[((X \pm Y)-E[X \pm Y])^2]\\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}\sum_{j=1}^{\infty} ((x_i \pm y_j)-E[X \pm Y])^2 f_{XY}(x_i, y_j) \\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}\sum_{j=1}^{\infty} ((x_i \pm y_j)-(E[X] \pm E[Y]))^2 f_{XY}(x_i, y_j) \\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}\sum_{j=1}^{\infty} ((x_i - E[X]) \pm (y_j - E[Y]))^2 f_{XY}(x_i, y_j) \\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}\sum_{j=1}^{\infty} ((x_i - E[X])^2 \pm 2(x_i - E[X])(y_j - E[Y]) +(y_j - E[Y])^2) f_{XY}(x_i, y_j) \\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}\sum_{j=1}^{\infty} ((x_i - E[X])^2 f_{XY}(x_i, y_j) \pm 2(x_i - E[X])(y_j - E[Y]) f_{XY}(x_i, y_j) +(y_j - E[Y])^2 f_{XY}(x_i, y_j)) \\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}\sum_{j=1}^{\infty} (x_i - E[X])^2 f_{XY}(x_i, y_j) \pm 2\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}\sum_{j=1}^{\infty}(x_i - E[X])(y_j - E[Y]) f_{XY}(x_i, y_j) + \displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}\sum_{j=1}^{\infty} (y_j - E[Y])^2 f_{XY}(x_i, y_j) \\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}(x_i - E[X])^2\sum_{j=1}^{\infty}f_{XY}(x_i, y_j) \pm 2\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}\sum_{j=1}^{\infty}(x_i - E[X])(y_j - E[Y]) f_{XY}(x_i, y_j) + \displaystyle\sum_{j=1}^{\infty} (y_j - E[Y])^2 \sum_{i=1}^{\infty} f_{XY}(x_i, y_j) \\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} (x_i - E[X])^2 f_{X}(x_i) \pm 2\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}\sum_{j=1}^{\infty}(x_i - E[X])(y_j - E[Y]) f_{XY}(x_i, y_j) + \displaystyle\sum_{j=1}^{\infty} (y_j - E[Y])^2 f_{Y}(y_j)\,\dotso\,周辺確率質量凾数を適用 \\ &=&V[X] \pm 2Cov[X,Y] +V[Y]\,\dotso\,Cov[X,Y]=\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}\sum_{j=1}^{\infty}(x_i - E[X])(y_j - E[Y]) f_{XY}(x_i, y_j)\\ \end{array}$$

X,Yが独立の場合

$$\begin{array}{rcl} V[X \pm Y]&=&\displaystyle V[X]+V[Y]\,\dotso\,X,Yが独立なのでCov[X,Y]=0\\ V[XY]&=&\displaystyle E[(XY)^2]-E[XY]^2\\ &=&\displaystyle E[X^2Y^2]-E[XY]^2\,\dotso\,(ab)^2=a^2b^2\\ &=&\displaystyle E[X^2]E[Y^2]-(E[X]E[Y])^2\,\dotso\,X,Yが独立なのでE[XY]=E[X]E[Y]\\ &=&\displaystyle E[X^2]E[Y^2]-E[X]^2E[Y]^2\,\dotso\,(ab)^2=a^2b^2\\ &=&\displaystyle (V[X]+E[X]^2)(V[Y]+E[Y]^2)-E[X]^2E[Y]^2\,\dotso\,V[X]=E[X^2]-E[X]^2よりE[X^2]=V[X]+E[X]^2\\ &=&\displaystyle V[X]V[Y]+V[X]E[Y]^2+V[Y]E[X]^2+E[X]^2E[Y]^2-E[X]^2E[Y]^2\\ &=&\displaystyle V[X]V[Y]+V[X]E[Y]^2+V[Y]E[X]^2\,\dotso\,X,Yが独立でもV[X]V[Y]とはならない\\ \end{array}$$

離散型確率変数(discrete random variable) / 期待値(expected value)

$$\begin{array}{rcl} 母集団(population)の確率変数&:&X,Y\\ 確率質量凾数(probability\,mass\,function,\,PMF)&:&f_X(x)=P(X=x_i)\\ &&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} f_X(x_i)=1\\ 累積分布凾数(cumulative\,distribution\,function,\,CDF)&:&\displaystyle F_X(x)=\sum_{i:x_i \leq x} f_X(x_i)\\ 同時確率質量凾数(joint\,probability\,mass\,function)&:&f_X(x, y)=P(X=x_i,\,Y=y_j)\\ &&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}\sum_{j=1}^{\infty} f_{XY}(x_i, y_j)=1\\ 周辺確率質量凾数(marginal\, probability\, mass\, function)&:&\displaystyle f_X(x)=\sum_{j=1}^{\infty} f_{XY}(x, y_i)\\ \end{array}$$ $$\begin{array}{rcl} E[g(X)]&\equiv&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} g(x_i) f_X(x_i) \\ E[X]&=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} (x_i) f_X(x_i) \\ E[cX] &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} (c x_i) f_X(x_i) \,\dotso\,cは定数\\ &=&c\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} x_i f_X(x_i) \\ &=&c E[X] \\ E[X \pm t]&=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} (x_i \pm t) f_X(x_i) \,\dotso\,tは定数\\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} (x_i f_X(x_i) \pm t f_X(x_i)) \\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} x_i f_X(x_i) \pm \displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} t f_X(x_i) \\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} x_i f_X(x_i) \pm t \displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} f_X(x_i) \\ &=&E[X] \pm t\\ E[X \pm Y]&=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}\sum_{j=1}^{\infty} (x_i \pm y_j) f_{XY}(x_i, y_j) \\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}\sum_{j=1}^{\infty} (x_i f_{XY}(x_i, y_j) \pm y_j f_{XY}(x_i, y_j)) \\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}\sum_{j=1}^{\infty} x_i f_{XY}(x_i, y_j) \pm \displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}\sum_{j=1}^{\infty} y_j f_{XY}(x_i, y_j)\\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} x_i \sum_{j=1}^{\infty} f_{XY}(x_i, y_j) \pm \displaystyle\sum_{j=1}^{\infty} y_j \sum_{i=1}^{\infty}f_{XY}(x_i, y_j)\\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} x_i f_{X}(x_i) \pm \displaystyle\sum_{j=1}^{\infty} y_j f_{Y}(y_j)\,\dotso\,周辺確率質量凾数を適用\\ &=& E[X] \pm E[Y] \\ \end{array}$$

X,Yが独立の場合

$$\begin{array}{rcl} E[XY]&=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}\sum_{j=1}^{\infty}(x_i y_j)f_{XY}(x_i, y_j)\\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}\sum_{j=1}^{\infty}x_iy_jf_{X}(x_i)f_{Y}(y_i) \,\dotso\,X,Yが独立\,f_{XY}(x, y)=f_{X}(x)f_{Y}(y)\\ &=&\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}\sum_{j=1}^{\infty}x_if_{X}(x_i)y_jf_{Y}(y_i)\\ &=&\displaystyle\left(\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}x_if_{X}(x_i)\right)\left(\sum_{j=1}^{\infty} y_jf_{Y}(y_i)\right) \,\dotso\,\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}\sum_{j=1}^{\infty}a_ib_j=\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}a_i\sum_{j=1}^{\infty}b_j\\ &=&E[X]E[Y] \end{array}$$